Compared to the macroeconomic forecasts from summer 2023, the combination of tightened monetary policy and slow economic growth has led to a downward revision of economic growth that would also affect the year 2024, according to the European Commission's latest analysis transmitted to infoFERMA.

Energy inflation continues to decline, but the reduction in supply by OPEC+ countries brings a price increase effect on oil starting in 2024.

Natural gas prices will rise towards the winter months, despite the 90% storage capacity reached in September. However, the evolution of natural gas prices has so far improved the accessibility of nitrogen fertilizers.

Encouraging signs for fertilizer accessibility, as well as availability and a certain reduction in other input costs, continue to strengthen farmers' margins, while commodity prices in the EU continue to decline.

EU production and consumer price indices have started to decline. While food inflation in the EU has ceased to rise, it remains above the general inflation level and at a historically high level.

However, monthly food inflation in the EU has started to decline, but prices still remain a major concern for consumers, as the cost of living remains high and prices could further evolve in light of the new harvest and uncertain developments in Ukraine.

The decline in EU prices for certain commodities observed in recent months has supported some recovery in EU exports, for example, powdered milk.

In other cases, they continue to suffer from high global food inflation and lower availability in the EU, which further pushes up prices for some products, such as olive oil, fruits. (Photo: Freepik)