Climate risk has become a structural factor in Romanian agriculture, rather than an exceptional variable. Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) and Eurostat show that, over the 2015–2024 period, the frequency of agricultural years with significant production losses has increased steadily, with a direct impact on farm incomes. In 2022 and 2023, severe soil drought affected more than 2.5 million hectares, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR), generating major economic losses.

In 2024, average yields for maize and sunflower recorded regional variations of over 40%, with differences explained almost exclusively by access to water and soil structure. Under these conditions, average yield becomes an increasingly less relevant indicator, and production volatility translates directly into financial instability.

The economic impact of climate risk is not limited to production losses. Farms’ fixed costs—leasing, loans, depreciation—remain constant regardless of harvest levels. A climatically poor year can quickly turn an apparently profitable farm into one with structural losses. JRC analyses indicate that non-irrigated farms in Central and Eastern Europe are the most exposed.

For 2026, IPCC and JRC data point to a continued high level of climate uncertainty, particularly in southern and eastern Romania. Adaptation becomes an immediate economic condition, not a long-term strategic option.

(Photo: Freepik)