According to ESMagazine, FranceAgriMer has raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2023/24, but has also raised its estimate of end-of-season stocks to a six-year high, based on lower forecasts for intra-EU deliveries and domestic demand for animal feed.

Increasing Exports

In a monthly outlook on supply and demand, the agricultural office estimated soft wheat exports to destinations outside the European Union at 10.1 million metric tons, up from the 9.8 million estimated last month and now only 0.5% below the level of the previous season.

The increase was mainly due to higher estimates of French wheat sales to China and Egypt, said FranceAgriMer analyst Clemence Lenoir. Strong demand from China had already prompted FranceAgriMer to raise its outlook for non-EU deliveries last month.

At the same time, it reduced its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU this season to 6.79 million tons from the 7.33 million estimated in October, mainly due to strong competition with Ukrainian wheat. The new estimate was still 6.3% higher than the volume in 2022/23.

Soft Wheat

The agricultural office had already increased its outlook for deliveries outside the EU last month and reduced its projection for intra-EU trade, citing strong sales to China along with Black Sea competition in EU markets.

French stocks of soft wheat at the end of the 2023/2024 season are now projected at 3.06 million tons, compared to the 2.78 million forecast last month, reflecting both reduced export prospects within the EU and a 100,000-ton reduction in the expected internal use of soft wheat for feeding.

The forecast for the new stocks is 20.1% above the level of the previous season and the highest since 2017/18.

Corn Forecast

For corn, whose harvest is in the final stage, FranceAgriMer has raised its estimated final stocks for 2023/2024 to 1.86 million tons from the 1.64 million estimated last month, as the office incorporated a higher production estimate by the farm ministry published on Tuesday.

Forecasted barley stocks for the end of 2023/2024 have been revised to 1.70 million tons from 1.65 million, reflecting mainly downward revisions to expected exports of barley and malt cereals in the EU.