According to ESMagazine, several top-producing countries have experienced wheat production issues, including Australia, Argentina, and Canada.

It is estimated that wheat production in Australia will decrease by 800,000 metric tons to 25.4 million metric tons, down 36% from the previous year, as dry weather reduces output, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences on Tuesday.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that wheat production for 2023/24 has been affected by extreme weather. Canada, the fourth-largest wheat exporter in the world, estimated lower production last week due to dry weather conditions.

Increased Grain Supply

Sources cited have reported that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, following talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin, said that a revival of the grain deal is imminent. The United Nations stated that this deal helped alleviate the food crisis by introducing Ukrainian grain to the market via the Black Sea.

Russia terminated the agreement in July, one year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, citing significant obstacles to its own food and fertilizer exports.

Agricultural consultancy firm IKAR stated that Moscow could export 49.5 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat in the 2023/24 season, an increase of 2 mmt from previous estimates, based on a revised estimate for the country's wheat harvest of 91.0 mmt, up from the earlier 89.5 mmt.

Egypt purchased approximately half a million metric tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, said four traders to Reuters, managing to negotiate lower prices than those offered in more traditional tenders.

Record Corn Crop in Brazil

Chicago corn futures contracts eased on Thursday, trading near three-year lows, as record production in Brazil, the leading exporter, and early deliveries from the U.S. harvest impacted the market.

Corn harvesting in some parts of the U.S. Midwest has started earlier than usual after warm and dry weather accelerated crop maturity, analysts and agronomists said.

The early completion is likely to provide early supplies to the market but may lower crop quality or reduce grain yields.

A farmer survey conducted by brokerage firm Allendale estimated a lower U.S. corn yield in 2023, at 171.51.

Production in Brazil

However, Brazil is expected to produce a record 131.8 million metric tons of corn due to a second bumper crop that farmers have almost finished harvesting, according to Brazil's food supply agency, Conab.

Conab forecasted 50 million metric tons of corn exports and nearly 97 million metric tons of soybean exports for Brazil in the 2022/23 cycle, with soybean production predicted to reach a record 154.6 million metric tons. Brazil is set to surpass the United States as the world's top corn exporter this year.

Soybean Prices

In the soybean market, large purchases by top importer China could support prices.

China imported 9.35 million metric tons of soybeans in August, Reuters calculations based on customs data showed on Thursday, as large purchases of cheap Brazilian beans continued to encourage buying.

Ukraine also has an excellent corn crop, with the 2023 harvest expected to rise by 5.8% this year to 29.3 million metric tons, according to French consultancy Agritel.

In wheat markets, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said that a lack of fuel could disrupt the autumn harvest and sowing, potentially hindering the flow of cheap grain from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, which has kept prices suppressed.

Russia also said that Turkey has tentatively agreed to handle 1 million metric tons of grain that Moscow intends to send to Africa at a reduced price with financial support from Qatar.

Reuters published surveys on analyst expectations for U.S. crop production, U.S. grain stocks, and global grain stocks ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's September crop supply/demand report.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, but net buyers of wheat and soybeans, according to traders.