FAO has raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2023 to 2,819 million tons, now 0.9% higher than the previous year.

The higher forecast is based almost entirely on recent and more positive estimates of yields for the Russian Federation and Ukraine compared to previous expectations due to ongoing favorable weather conditions, while Canada's production is now expected to be considerably lower due to persistent dry weather in key crop-growing areas.

FAO's new document on cereal supply and demand sets global wheat production at 785 million tons, coarse grains production at 1,511 million tons, up 2.7% from 2022, and global rice production at 523.1 million tons.

Despite downward revisions this month, global cereal utilization in 2023/24, estimated at 2,804 million tons, is expected to exceed last year's result by 0.8%, with increased wheat consumption. Global rice utilization is forecast at 520.5 million tons, suggesting a second successive season of non or negative utilization growth, as ongoing reductions in non-food uses are expected to offset population-driven food consumption growth.

World cereal stocks are estimated to reach 884 million tons by the end of the 2024 season, exceeding opening levels by 3.0% and marking a record high.

The new and larger forecast for ending stocks, combined with a lower utilization forecast this month, results in an estimated stock-to-use ratio of 30.8% for cereals.

FAO's latest forecasts for global trade in all cereals in 2023/24 remain at around 466 million tons, unchanged from last month but indicating an annual decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2022/23 level.