FAO Forecasts Global Cereal Production Growth in 2025 Amid Regional Challenges

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, projecting global wheat production in 2025 to reach 796 million tonnes, marking a modest 1% increase from the previous year.

This forecast is primarily supported by anticipated production increases in the European Union, especially in France and Germany, where soft wheat sowings are expected to rise.

Eastern Europe Adds Support, But Challenges Persist

However, challenges such as dry conditions in Eastern Europe and excessive rainfall in western regions may limit yield improvements. In the United States, wheat acreage is expected to expand, although yields could decline slightly due to drought conditions affecting winter crops.

Rice production is projected to hit a record 543 million tonnes (milled equivalent) in the 2024/25 season, driven by strong harvest outlooks in India and favorable growing conditions in Cambodia and Myanmar.

FAO has raised its forecast for total global cereal production in 2024 to 2.842 billion tonnes, reflecting a slight increase over 2023.

Cereal Usage and Stock Levels: Global Outlook

Global cereal utilization for the 2024/25 marketing year is projected at 2.867 billion tonnes, up 1.0% year-over-year, largely due to an expected record consumption of rice.

Wheat usage is forecast to remain stable, as a small decline in food consumption is expected to be offset by increased industrial use, particularly in China.

FAO anticipates a 1.9% decline in global cereal stocks, with ending stocks for 2025 estimated at 869.3 million tonnes. Increased reserves in the Russian Federation and Ukraine are expected to be offset by reductions elsewhere.

The global cereal stock-to-use ratio is forecast to decline to 29.9%, still indicative of a comfortable supply level. Meanwhile, FAO revised its forecast for global cereal trade to 484.2 million tonnes, marking a 5.6% decrease from the previous season due to shifting export dynamics.

Harvest Outlook for 2025 Varies by Region

FAO also released a new edition of its Crop Prospects and Food Situation report today.

In Africa, prolonged dry weather in North Africa has diminished cereal production prospects, while favorable rains in Southern Africa are expected to support a rebound in yields following significant declines in 2024.

In Asia, the outlook is mixed. Far East Asia is set to continue growing its wheat production in 2025, supported by extensive planting and favorable weather conditions.

In contrast, East Asia faces low rainfall since late 2024, impacting potential output and possibly pushing wheat harvests below the five-year average.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, mixed weather conditions are affecting South American maize production, with disease outbreak risks posing an additional threat in Argentina.

Despite these challenges, aggregate production in the region is expected to remain above average, largely due to strong production forecasts for Brazil. In Central America and the Caribbean, ongoing dry conditions have reduced cereal planting in Mexico, while favorable weather elsewhere is expected to boost yields.

45 Countries in Need of External Food Assistance

The report emphasizes that 45 countries currently require external food assistance—including 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 1 in Europe.

Persistent conflict and civil insecurity remain the main drivers of severe food insecurity, with populations in Gaza (Palestine) and Sudan facing IPC Phase 5 levels of acute food insecurity.

In addition, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, released its monthly Market Monitor report today. Alongside its regular market analyses, the report includes an early outlook for global wheat production in 2025. (Photo: Freepik)