In a new update on cereal supply and demand, published on Friday, the FAO has maintained its forecast for global cereal production in 2023 at 2,819 million tons, a record level.

Some adjustments have been made to country-level figures, notably an increased production of raw cereals in China and most of West Africa, and reduced forecasts for the United States and the European Union.

Production forecasts for wheat have been raised for Iraq and the United States, and lowered for the European Union and Kazakhstan. Global rice production in 2023/24 is expected to marginally increase year-on-year.

These new revisions include an update on production in India, more than offsetting various other revisions, notably a further downgrade in Indonesian production prospects.

Global cereal use in 2023/24 is estimated to reach 2,810 million tons, with total use of both wheat and coarse grains expected to exceed the levels of 2022/23, while rice use is expected to remain at the previous season's level.

The world cereal stock-to-use ratio for 2023/24 is estimated at 30.7%, "a historically comfortable supply situation," slightly above the 30.5% level of the previous year, according to the FAO.

Global cereal trade in 2023/24 is forecasted at 469 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous year.