The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2023/24 season, with upward revisions for Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, offsetting concerns about crop damage in Australia.

Growing but Reduced Production

The monthly update from the intergovernmental body has set the global wheat crop at 785 million metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 783 million but still well below the previous season's record of 803 million.

IGC estimated Ukraine's wheat production at 27.4 million metric tons, up from the previous observation of 25.9 million, while exports were revised upward to 12.5 million tons from 12.0 million.

However, exports were still below the 17.1 million level from the previous season after the expiry in July of a UN-backed deal that had allowed exports through a safe Black Sea corridor.

Wheat Exports

Russia's wheat crop was observed at 89 million tons, up from a previous forecast of 87.4 million, with wheat exports revised upward to 49 million tons from 48.5 million observed a month ago.

Other major crop revisions were for the United States (49.3 million tons, up from 47.2 million) and Australia (24.4 million tons, down from 25.4 million).

IGC also reduced its forecast for global corn production in 2023/24 by 3 million metric tons to 1.219 billion tons due to downward revisions for the United States (382.7 million tons, down from 384.4 million) and Brazil (127.2 million tons, down from 130.2 million).

The impact was partially offset by an improved outlook for China, where a crop of 280.6 million tons was forecast, up from 277.4 million previously.

Elsewhere, warm weather has helped farmers in the European Union make progress with cereal planting for next year's crop, with the area dedicated to winter wheat and barley expected to be similar to this year, while rapeseed plantings may be slightly lower, according to analysts.