Compared to the macroeconomic forecasts from the summer of 2023, the combination of tightened monetary policy and slow economic growth has led to a downward revision of economic growth, which would also affect the year 2024, according to the latest analysis published by DGAgri.

Energy inflation continues to decline, but the reduction in supply by OPEC+ countries brings an upward effect on oil prices starting in 2024.

Natural gas prices are rising towards the winter months, despite reaching a storage capacity of 90% in September. However, the evolution of natural gas prices has so far improved the accessibility of nitrogen fertilizers.

Encouraging signs for the accessibility of fertilizers, as well as availability and some reduction in other input costs, continue to strengthen farmers' margins, while EU commodity prices continue to decline.

EU production and consumer price indices have started to decline. While food inflation in the EU has stopped rising, it has remained above the general inflation level and at historically high levels.

However, monthly food inflation in the EU began to decline in July, but prices remain a major concern for consumers as the cost of living remains high, and prices could continue to evolve in light of the new harvest and uncertain developments in Ukraine.

Lower EU prices for certain commodities observed in recent months have supported some recovery in EU exports, for example, powdered milk.

In other cases, they continue to suffer from high global food inflation and lower availability in the EU, pushing prices even higher for some products (e.g., olive oil and fruits).