The cereal harvest in Ukraine is likely to decrease to around 52 million metric tons this year from 58 million tons in 2023, largely due to a smaller estimated planting area, the Ministry of Agriculture said in its first official harvest forecast for 2024, quoted by ESMagazine.

Crop Forecast

The ministry said last month that the planting area for corn could decrease by 4.5%, to 3.863 million hectares this year, from 4.043 million in 2023.

Farmers may also reduce the planted area for spring wheat and sunflower, but are advised to increase it for spring barley and soybeans.

The ministry's harvest forecast shows that the country could harvest 27 million tons of corn, 19 million tons of wheat, and 5 million tons of barley this year.

Ukraine has not published the final results of the 2023 harvest. The latest figures show wheat harvest at around 22.5 million tons, with farms also harvesting 5.9 million tons of barley and 28.2 million tons of corn.

The ministry said that this year farmers could thresh 4 million tons of rapeseed, 12.5 million tons of sunflower seeds, and 5.2 million tons of soybeans.

The ministry said that farmers could sharply increase the planted area for soybeans this year to 2.199 million hectares from 1.780 million in 2023, as soybeans were almost the only profitable crop in 2023.

Oilseeds

Ukraine was the world's largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil. However, a decrease in sunflower prices could force producers to reduce the planted area for sunflowers to 5.292 million hectares from 5.307 million in 2023, according to data.

Ukraine harvested 4 million tons of rapeseed, 4.8 million tons of soybeans, and 12 million tons of sunflower seeds in 2023.

The Ukrainian Grain Association UGA said last month that the combined cereal and oilseed harvest for 2024 could decrease to 76.1 million tons from 82.6 million last year - well below the 107 million tons harvested before the Russian invasion.

UGA said the harvest could include 26.3 million tons of corn, 20 million tons of wheat, and 13.7 million tons of sunflower seeds. (Photo: Dreamstime)