Ukraine's corn production in the 2024-2025 period is estimated to be lower than the five-year average due to a decline in planted area, based on Argus observations made on the fourth day of the virtual crop tour and reported to infoFERMA editorial staff.

Argus's forecast for Ukraine's corn production in the 2024-2025 season is 29 million tons, down from 31.03 million tons in 2023-24.

The planted area is estimated at 3.9 million hectares, slightly down from last year's 3.98 million hectares. Yields are projected at 7.44 tons per hectare, above the five-year average of 7 tons per hectare.

Argus will further refine these forecasts at the end of August, during its corn harvest tour in Ukraine.

Farmers report well-developed vegetative mass in plants and good growth potential—corn needs to reach a certain height to yield good harvests. However, warm and dry weather conditions forecasted for the future could hinder production potential.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has slightly increased its corn production forecast for 2024-2025 for the country to 27.7 million tons, but also increased its export projection, with the ending stock for 2024-2025 unchanged from the previous report at 1.48 million tons.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has forecasted the country's corn production for the 2024-2025 period at 28.5 million tons, which would ensure greater export availability.

Argus estimated that Ukraine's beginning stocks of corn in the 2024-2025 season will be only 1.2 million tons, compared to 4.1 million tons in 2023-24. This would reduce Ukraine's export potential in 2024-25 to 24 million tons, 4.5 million tons less than in the previous season. (Photo: Freepik)