Global Wheat Market Faces Price Volatility Amid Trade Wars and Geopolitical Factors

A recent analysis published by AllAboutFeed highlights significant price fluctuations in the global wheat market in recent years, driven by international trade tensions, unfavorable weather conditions, and geopolitical factors.

These elements have created a volatile environment for wheat producers, exporters, and consumers worldwide.

The Impact of the Trade War on Wheat Prices

In 2025, the Trump administration initiated a series of trade tariffs on key partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China. These measures triggered fears of an oversupply, leading to significant declines in grain prices in the United States.

Wheat prices fell by over 17% in three weeks, while corn dropped by 9%, and soybeans by 8%.

American farmers, particularly those in Ohio, voiced concerns over these tariffs, fearing retaliatory actions that could result in restricted markets and lower prices, impacting their livelihoods and rural communities.

Additionally, there were concerns over rising prices for imported goods essential for agricultural operations.

International Reactions and Consequences for the Wheat Market

In response to the new U.S. tariffs, China announced import tariff increases of 10%-15% on various American agricultural products, including wheat. This further pressured American farmers and global agricultural markets.

Analyses suggested that these measures could lead to greater reliance on Brazilian agricultural imports, affecting global commodity markets.

Furthermore, President Trump urged the public to remain patient regarding the tariff effects, while farmers and consumers braced for their impact. Wheat, corn, and soybean prices declined, affecting farmers' profitability.

Meat prices were also expected to rise, although some products might see price reductions in the domestic market due to limited export opportunities.

Recent Trends in Wheat Prices

According to data from Trading Economics, wheat prices have dropped by 7.75 cents per bushel or 1.41% since the beginning of 2025. In March 2022, wheat prices reached an all-time high of 1,350 cents per bushel.

A report by IMARC Group indicated that the Asia-Pacific wheat market experienced a downward trend in the second quarter of 2024, despite a mid-quarter price rebound.

At the beginning of the quarter, prices fell due to delayed harvests and traders postponing sales amid Indian elections.

Outlook for 2025

According to an analysis by Morpher, wheat prices could fluctuate depending on several factors:

• Price Increases (above $6.50 per bushel): If stocks continue to decline and geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, wheat prices could surpass $6.50 as demand outstrips supply.
• Stable Market ($5.00–$5.50 per bushel): If supply and demand remain balanced, wheat could continue trading within its current range.
• Further Declines (below $4.50 per bushel): If harvests remain strong, energy costs decrease, and demand weakens, wheat prices could drop below $5.00 by the end of 2025.

The analysis emphasizes that price trends will largely depend on weather conditions and potential export restrictions imposed by major suppliers.

By the end of February, wheat prices hovered around $5.52 per bushel, with analysts divided on the market's future direction.

The wheat market continues to be influenced by a complex combination of factors, including trade tensions, weather conditions, and supply-demand dynamics.