The Chicago soybean futures contracts remained unchanged last week, but they were set for their first weekly gain since August after the US government reduced its US production estimates more than analysts expected, as reported by ESMagazine.

Corn fell, and wheat rose, with both poised to end the week little changed.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated in a monthly report that the US soybean harvest was 4.104 billion bushels, which is 42 million bushels less than the September estimate and 30 million bushels below analysts' expectations.

The USDA also projected lower soybean yields, and soybean ending stocks remained steady at the September level.

Higher soy prices

Higher soy prices would encourage more US farmers to switch from corn to beans in the new plantings, putting downward pressure on the long-term market, said Vitor Pistoia, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney.

Short-term, however, a record harvest in Brazil keeps a lid on prices, with Brazilian beans trading at a discount, he said.

On the demand side, customs data showed that China imported 7.15 million tons of soybeans in September, down 7.3% from a year ago.

The most active soybean contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was unchanged at $12.90 per bushel as of 05:01 GMT but was up 1.9% from last Friday's close.

CBOT soybeans fell to $12.51 per bushel earlier this week, the lowest level since December 2021.

Corn decrease

Chicago corn Cv1 dropped 0.4% to $4.94-1/4 per bushel, and wheat Wv1 was 0.3% higher at $5.73 per bushel.

For corn, which fell to a 33-month low of $4.68 per bushel last month due to strong supplies from Brazil and the United States, the USDA predicted a US harvest of 15.064 billion bushels, 37 million bushels below analysts' expectations.

US soy and corn crops were affected by warm and dry weather during critical periods of the growing season.

Separately, the USDA reported that exporters had sold 295,000 metric tons of US soybeans to unknown buyers and 124,545 metric tons of US corn to Guatemala.

Cereal forecasts

In Europe, consulting firm Strategie Grains increased its forecast for this year's wheat crop in the European Union by 0.6 million metric tons, to 125.6 million metric tons, and for corn (maize) to 60.6 million metric tons, an increase of 1 million metric tons.

China's Ministry of Agriculture also raised its forecast for next year's corn crop by 1.15% to a record 288 million metric tons.

In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange reduced its wheat crop forecast and increased its soybean crop estimate.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also reduced its forecast for Argentina's wheat crop during the 2023/2024 harvest season by 0.3 million metric tons to 16.2 million metric tons.

CBOT wheat fell to its lowest level in three years last month at $5.40 per bushel due to a wave of cheap exports from Russia.

Egypt's grain buyer said on Thursday that it purchased 470,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender, of which 300,000 tons were Russian. The lowest free-on-board offer was $259 per metric ton, according to traders.

In its report, the USDA estimated US wheat ending stocks at 670 million bushels, 33 million bushels above analysts' expectations.

Commodity funds were net buyers of Chicago soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and wheat, traders said.