The agricultural market enters 2026 with an increasingly visible paradox: high production levels across Europe, but low margins for farmers. According to Eurostat data, in 2024–2025 average cereal prices in the European Union fell by 20–30% compared to the peak reached in 2022, returning close to the pre-pandemic average, while production costs adjusted much more slowly.

In Romania, this gap is even more pronounced. Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) show that the average farm-gate price for wheat and maize declined significantly in 2024, while costs for inputs, energy, and services remained 25–35% above 2019 levels. Under these conditions, volume no longer compensates for the loss in unit value.

Romania’s position on the European market is dominated by exports of raw materials. According to the European Commission, more than 60% of cereal production is exported as unprocessed product, exposing farmers to international market volatility and high logistics costs. Price differences between farms in Romania and those in Western EU countries are explained less by productivity and more by structure and access to markets.

For 2026, the data point to a market characterized by intense competition and weak bargaining power at the level of the primary producer. Without mechanisms for value chain integration or more sophisticated commercial strategies, profitability remains vulnerable to even minor price fluctuations.

(Photo: Freepik)