The latest FAO forecast indicates that in 2024, global wheat production is expected to decrease marginally (0.1 percent) compared to the previous season's level, to 787 million tonnes.

Most of the decline in production is expected to result from anticipated decreases in production in the European Union, Ukraine, Turkey, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and Morocco.

Recent unfavorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region are likely to lead to a decline in global wheat production. Global wheat utilization in 2024/25 is expected to decrease by 0.8% from the record level reached in 2023/24 to 794 million tonnes, marginally falling below the ten-year trend.

While food use of wheat is expected to continue to grow, supported by population growth, feed use of wheat and other uses are projected to decline by 3.8% and 5.0%, respectively, with the anticipated declines concentrated mainly in China and India.

Given that global production is expected to fall short of utilization, world wheat stocks are likely to decline from their opening levels by 1.6% to 307 million tonnes by the end of the season in 2025.

Although this would mark a second consecutive year-on-year decline, the forecast for the global wheat stock-to-use ratio for 2024/25, now at 38.0 percent, indicates a generally comfortable level of supply.

A significant expected decrease in European Union stocks accounts for most of the global reduction forecast, with smaller declines projected in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. Helping to balance these declines, stocks are expected to increase in China, India, and the United States of America.

The preliminary forecast for world wheat trade in 2024/25 (July/June) is 198 million tonnes, indicating a potential contraction of 1.2% from the level in 2023/24. The decline mainly stems from anticipated lower imports by China and the European Union, along with smaller expected export volumes from the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Turkey.

International export prices of wheat continued a steady downward trend in the 2023/24 season, reflecting ample supplies and strong competition among exporters, especially from robust, competitively priced exports from the Russian Federation.

With the start of the 2024/25 season, global wheat prices are below last year's levels as well as their five-year average values. With expectations of declining global utilization and larger harvests in several major exporting countries, wheat markets are likely to remain under downward pressure in 2024/25. (Photo: Freepik)