2025 was among the driest years of the past decade. According to data published by Revista Ferma, soil water deficit affected approximately 60% of the agricultural land during critical vegetation periods. In the absence of functional irrigation systems, only 350,000 hectares were effectively irrigated—a modest share compared to the national technical potential of over 3 million hectares. The direct consequence: for more than 40% of small farms, 2025 ended with losses or minimal profit.

Field data confirms a worrying structural trend. According to the Farmer in 2026 study conducted by MKOR on a sample of 250 farmers managing at least 100 hectares, extreme weather events are perceived as 30% more critical than traditional financial challenges such as input costs or price pressure. Only 23% of the analyzed farms have automated irrigation systems, and 21% use digital monitoring tools. In contrast, 73% have diversified crops to reduce risk, 71% have introduced drought-resistant varieties, and 63% have reduced cultivated areas, opting for lower but more secure production.

Scientific projections further deepen the concern. According to climate modeling in the report State of the Climate – Romania 2025, maize production is expected to decline by 10–13% by 2050 and by over 15% by 2070 under a high-emissions scenario. Production of wheat, fruits, and vegetables could drop by up to 25–30% in years of extreme drought. The average annual temperature in Romania has already increased by 0.5–1°C compared to the 1980s, with projections indicating a rise of up to 4.5°C by 2070.

The sector’s response is beginning to take shape. For the 2026–2028 period, investments in irrigation systems and water conservation are a priority for 48% of farmers, according to the same MKOR study. However, input costs remain a parallel pressure: fertilizers in 2025 remained 25–30% above the multi-year average, while interest rates on agricultural loans frequently exceeded 9–10% annually.

Romanian farmers can no longer treat climate as a variable to negotiate with—it has become a constant around which the entire business model must be built.

(Photo: Magnific)