Global Corn Market in 2025: Sharp Volatility Driven by Speculation, Weather, and Global Stock Outlook

According to AllAboutFeed, the global corn market in 2025 is undergoing a period of heightened volatility, influenced by massive speculative selling, weather conditions in the U.S., and changing global stock projections.

An analysis of trading on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Euronext/MATIF in Paris reveals divergent trends and persistent uncertainty surrounding corn futures prices.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT): Selling Pressure and Harvest Expectations

On the CBOT, corn futures prices have been heavily impacted by significant speculative selling. Between late February and mid-May 2025, fund managers sold more than 420,000 corn contracts, triggering a 10.5% drop in the most actively traded contracts and pushing December futures to a five-year low.

As of June 3, 2025, corn futures were trading at an estimated volume of 399,360 contracts, each representing 5,000 bushels, with open interest totaling 1,659,958 contracts, down from the previous session.

However, as summer begins in the U.S., traders are becoming more cautious, scaling back selling activity to closely monitor weather patterns and crop conditions, which could significantly affect market direction.

Euronext/MATIF: Relative Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

On the Euronext exchange in Paris, June 2025 corn futures were trading at €190.00 per ton on May 30, 2025, marking a slight decline from previous days. This movement suggests relative price stability despite global uncertainty, though the market remains sensitive to external factors such as weather conditions and export dynamics.

Key Market Drivers

Several key factors are influencing corn futures pricing in 2025:

• Weather Conditions: Drought in Russia and forecasts for dry weather across the U.S. Midwest are affecting production outlooks and driving price volatility.
• Global Stocks: U.S. corn stock projections for the 2025–2026 season suggest a 27% increase, though still 21% below earlier estimates—leaving room for positive surprises if yields underperform.
• Currency Fluctuations: A weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger euro are impacting the competitiveness of corn exports, influencing both demand and pricing.

Outlook and Conclusions

The corn market in 2025 faces significant short-term volatility, driven by climatic, geopolitical, and macroeconomic factors. While prices on CBOT reflect investor caution, Euronext is supported by unfavorable Russian conditions, offering some price stability.

In the near term, volatility is expected to persist, with traders and investors keeping a close eye on weather developments and geopolitical risks to adjust their positions and strategies accordingly.